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22/05/2013

CITI: We No Longer Think Greece Will Exit The Eurozone

GrexitLast summer, Citi's chief economist, Willem Buiter, introduced a bold call: he assigned a 90% probability that Greece would exit the euro on January 1, 2013.

Needless to say, Buiter's dramatic call didn't work out. By October, Buiter and his team revised the odds of a Greek exit to 60%, and even then, only by the end of 2013.

However, they maintained that a Greek exit was still their base case, saying it would likely happen in 2014, after the German elections.

In a note out today, the Citi economics team is once again walking back their views toward the likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro.

Here's the key section:

we are no longer including Grexit at the start of 2014 in our base case. We still believe that there is a fairly high risk of Grexit in coming years, but no longer put it in our base case at any particular date. This partly reflects a lower risk of Grexit, but also a sense that, with creditor nations taking a more relaxed line on fiscal targets and Greece’s coalition government holding together, triggers for Grexit as early as 2014 have receded markedly. The chosen date was always somewhat arbitrary, but to construct a consistent forecast we pencilled in sizeable Grexit-related uncertainties and financial strains around that date, hitting the 2014 growth outlook. That intensified headwind is now absent in our forecast.

Crisis over?

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-exit-no-longer-citis-base-case-2013-5#ixzz2UTspQG7a

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